Russia has an impressive military with Nuclear Weapons, but when it comes to Economic prowess, it is an Emerging Market! It has been only 20 years since Russia collapsed financially and it is still working through through the economic disruption. Although blessed with huge Natural Resources, Russia is still very dependent on Foreign Capital to develop it’s mining, gas and oil fields. Foreign Capital is needed not only for developing the resources themselves, but the infrastructure to bring them to market. Global Markets dictate much of Russia’s income as the price of basic materials fluctuate with the Business Cycle. As one of the World’s leading oil producers, Russia has benefited from the recent run up in Oil prices which are expressed in US Dollars. Basic Materials are also expressed in US Dollars, but are very sensitive to demand dynamics; much, much more sensitive. Dollar dependency is a two edged sword for although the demand for the energy component is less elastic, the price can fluctuate wildly. The price of Natural Resources can plummet as the Global Slowdown intensifies; as with any Emerging Market repayment of Foreign Loans becomes more and more difficult.
The BRICs were the darling of the Investment Community. Now Brazil and India are struggling. China financed much of it’s Capital needs with internal financing through it’s Shadow Banking and while these loans are certainly at risk, they are less visible. Russia has done much better than many Emerging Market Nations, but Russia is still affected by a rising US Dollar and rising Global Interest Rates. The balance of Trade impacts the International repayments. A Global Slowdown is underway and many Emerging Markets are at risk of depleting Dollar Reserves and thus entering a Liquidity Crisis. Which leads to Turkey!
Commodity prices will fall crushing the Emerging Markets which will cause Turmoil throughout the World. Debts will not be paid and alliances will be stretched if not completely broken.
Turkey, along with Argentina and Brazil, is rapidly running out of Dollar Reserves. Turkey imports much more than it exports and as it’s currency declines, purchasing power falls dramatically. Turkey needs Cash to not only finance Government offices, public utilities, and to service domestic needs, but any recent Military adventures such as last year’s excursion into Iraq and just recently Syria. Everything needs to be financed. The Credit lines from Western Nations and the US come with restrictions which the Turkish Government seems to be unwilling to accept. Turkey is now in overtures to Russia and China to provide US Dollars to solve it’s Liquidity demands. Currently, Turkey is involved in operations with Russia in Syria; an operation that benefits both Geo-politically, but is adverse to Turkish Allies objectives. This becomes a very interesting puzzle!
Russia and China can forestall Turkey’s liquidity crisis for awhile; a few months, maybe a year. However, both are still Emerging Markets themselves and a prolonged Global downturn will inevitably affect any extension of Credit.
A Global Downturn has been evident for months. Demand for natural Resources and eventually Energy will fall, slowly at first then much more rapidly. Commodity prices will fall crushing the Emerging Markets which will cause Turmoil throughout the World. Debts will not be paid and alliances will be stretched if not completely broken. There is still time to prepare; payoff debt, build reserves, store things like food, water, and medicine. As quickly as possible, build a personal cash reserve held outside of financial institutions and as important, build a Financial Lifeboat of Cash Flowing assets.