Capital is the Life Blood of Business. When Credit is readily available, expansion of existing facilities to increase production becomes possible. With new production, employment expands, a ripple effect and a virtuous spiral starts spreading throughout the Economy. Optimism and Hope prevails as the outlook for the future brightens! Hope and Optimism are being crushed in Turkey!
Monday August 27, 2018, Turkey’s 10 year Bond closed over 21%. These rates spell doom for the Turkey.
Commercial debt in Turkey is estimated as $330 Billion US Dollars; Us Dollars have become a very precious commodity. The Turkish Lira has been declining for several years, but the US Dollar index DXY seems to have stopped declining and bottomed at 88.5 in February of this year and has been flirting with 97 just 6 months later; a technical target of 103.8 has been suggested by several analysts. The strategy of borrowing in a declining currency and gambling that the decline will hold until time for repayment has backfired on all of the Emerging Market debtors; Turkey has also lost that bet! Not only has the Turkish Currency declined, economic conditions have deteriorated swiftly causing a lack of confidence which then results in a Credit Risk Premium for new debt.
The unfortunate reality is Corporate and Sovereign Debt is never retired, just Refinanced; this negative loop has driven rates higher, unsustainably higher. Monday August 27, 2018, Turkey’s 10 year Bond closed over 21%. These rates spell doom for the Turkey.
Business will certainly suffer as Credit becomes illusive. Employment will suffer and Optimism will die. Compounding the loss of credit is the Currency Inflation that will transform any imported Goods or Services such as Oil, electrical and machinery spare parts, medicine, iron and steel plastics, fertilizer, and many industrial components into extremely expensive items; the Turkish Lira has lost 40% this year alone. This currency inflation will affect the populace as the Currency Inflation devastates their buying power. If shoes and jeans, bread and butter, antibiotics and insulin become HYPER EXPENSIVE, expect civil unrest!
Turkey has the real possibility of defaulting on it’s debt! Planned, intentional? Probably not! It really does not matter. Turkey will look for new allies to extend crucial new credit such as Russia and China. New Business allies often become new military allies; overtures to other previously unthinkable Middle East nations such as Iran become thinkable. Turmoil may be on the Horizon.
Learn the lessons from Turkey! Debt eventually overwhelms everyone and everything! Inflation, even currency inflation, raises the price of real things. Therefore, invest in REAL things, get out of personal debt, use investment debt judiciously and preferably use a fixed rate. Review your reserves and stockpile things that might become difficult to buy if Turmoil comes to our shores! Maintain and extend cash levels to weather an extended storm!